Overview of Global Macro long term trends 2019
Here we list some of the most important macroeconomic long term trends that influence our thinking and analysis grouped into economics, technology and geopolitical
Economic long-term trends
1) THE END OF THE DEBT SUPER-CYCLE
The last 50 years which were in comparison to prior periods marked by absence of war allowed for debt taking and debt financing.
2) THE ONGOING EURO CRISIS
The Euro crisis is not longer a topic in the news. But with the European Central bank still engaging in QE and negative interest rates the crisis is far from over.
3) THE DECLINING SPENDING POWER OF THE MIDDLE CLASSES
4) THE RISE OF THE EAST
5) MEAN REVERSION OF WEALTH-TO-GDP
Technology
1) THE END OF B2C TECH DOMINANCE
2) TESTING OF REAL TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION AT THE END OF THIS VC CYCLE.
Geopolitical
1) THE END OF BRETTON WOODS AND A NEW ERA OF GEOPOLITICAL RISK.
This will affect especially Germany as the leading export nation.
new mobility
Individual mobility and the automobile are among the most important achievements and technologies of the 20th century. The automotive industry is important and a major contributor to jobs/GDP for good reason. Mobility and the automotive sector faces a number of challenges.
Our approach is distinguished by the choice of analysis. We consider mobility with a mixture of innovation cycles and analysis methods from the field of global macro and industrial economics. In combination with solid experience in the field of technology innovation and technology cycles, this allows for the development of perspectives outside of simple, step-by-step innovation models and process optimizations.
Core theses
Germany - country profile, economics and technology issues
As background to our global macro services, thinking and publications Iceventure provides a country overview page about Germany.
Classification of Germany
Germany is the 5th largest economy and largest economy in Europe. The GPD in 2019 (nominal) was 3.435 Trillion EUR.
It is an attractive market for companies.
Economic and political issues in Germany
As primarily export driven country it is an outlier in global economics. The clear strength of Germany