new mobility

Freigegeben in point of view

Individual mobility and the automobile are among the most important achievements and technologies of the 20th century. The automotive industry is important and a major contributor to jobs/GDP for good reason. Mobility and the automotive sector faces a number of challenges. 

Our approach is distinguished by the choice of analysis. We consider mobility with a mixture of innovation cycles and analysis methods from the field of global macro and industrial economics. In combination with solid experience in the field of technology innovation and technology cycles, this allows for the development of perspectives outside of simple, step-by-step innovation models and process optimizations.

Core theses

The automotive industry is a pillar of the economy, especially in Germany. Nevertheless, there are potentials for dynamic developments. In the interplay between industrial economics and new technologies, there are some possible challenges.

First of all, product sales are and remain a core topic in any industry. In addition to the usual entrepreneurial strategies and methods, there are additional complex elements in the automotive industry. The current end of the economic cycle will shift global demand. In addition, there are several technologies which can potentially transform the market structure. It is no coincidence that numerous Silicon Valley companies are gradually entering the market.
In the context of technology, there are three fundamental paradigms that must be observed: autonomous driving, e-mobility and the softwareization of internal vehicle technology.
The growing role of software in automobiles and especially autonomous driving is shifting the dynamics in the production process and opening the door for new market players. There are some possible network effects, but a clear distinction must be made between when digital technology leads to gradual and when to disruptive innovations.
The last word has not yet been spoken in the area of e-mobility. Electrification is seen as the future from many political and some economical actors. However, we still observe that the sales figures in e-mobility simply do not follow the typical patterns of technological innovation. The question of batteries is related to e-mobility. Which battery production locations will ultimately prevail has not been finally clarified and depends on capacities, know-how and political considerations. In addition, global production chains could shift due to geopolitical developments and Covid-19.

Tesla can be seen as an example of the complex interconnection of technology, market and macro-level economics. Without question, Tesla is well positioned on the technology level. However, in the context of our technology impact assessment and our experience in the SaaS area, the rating of Tesla as a software company appears to us to be too high.
Finally, the subject of city mobility is still up for debate. Especially in connection with the technologies described, it is possible that city mobility of the future will not simply be the old structure with a new car, but that the overall structure of inner-city mobility will change drastically.

Iceventure can support companies in the restructuring of industry in the area of ​​tension between the end of the industrial cycle and new technologies. With analysis on the technological, macroeconomic and entrepreneurial level, we are the point of contact for both studies and technological issues.


Selection of important News in 2020

German Hydrogen Strategy
The German government has announced a national hydrogen strategy, setting the goal to become the global leader in hydrogen production. This is highly relevant for the energy storage industry and consequently for the automotive industry, as the availability of hydrogen as energy storage medium is likely to increase.

VW's electro investment
VW has invested approx. 50 billion Euro in the development of electric vehicles. This is remarkable, as about 70 different vehicle concepts were developed. Thus, VW has the potential to capture a large market share with an unprecedented number of electric models, at least in theory.

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